[SMM Analysis] Vietnam Initiates Review Investigation on Cold-Rolled Carbon Steel Sheets and Coils Involving China: How Significant Is the Impact?!

Published: Jan 3, 2025 15:36

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[SMM Analysis] Vietnam Initiates Review Investigation on Cold-Rolled Carbon Steel Coils Involving China: How Significant Is the Impact?! Overall, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total volume of cold-rolled carbon steel coils exported from China to Vietnam in 2024 is only 4,900 mt, accounting for 0.47% of China's total exports of cold-rolled carbon steel coils. In terms of China's export rankings for cold-rolled carbon steel coils, Vietnam has dropped from 6th place at the start of the anti-dumping investigation to 31st place! Therefore, even if the anti-dumping duties are extended next year, there will be no significant impact on the total export volume of domestic cold-rolled carbon steel coils...

[SMM Analysis] Vietnam Initiates Sunset Review on Anti-Dumping of Cold-Rolled Carbon Steel Coils from China: How Significant Is the Impact?!BackgroundOn December 27, 2024, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Announcement No. 3565/QD-BCT, signed on December 25, 2024, stating the initiation of the first sunset review investigation on anti-dumping measures against cold-rolled carbon steel coils originating from China with a width of less than 1,600 mm and a thickness of 0.108 mm–2.55 mm [Vietnamese: đối với một sốsản phẩm thép các-bon cán nguội (ép nguội)]. The Vietnamese tariff codes for the products involved are 7209.16.10, 7209.16.90, 7209.17.10, 7209.17.90, 7209.18.91, 7209.18.99, 7209.26.10, 7209.26.90, 7209.27.10, 7209.27.90, 7209.28.10, 7209.28.90, 7209.90.90, 7211.23.20, 7211.23.30, 7211.23.90, 7211.29.20, 7211.29.30, 7211.29.90, and 7225.50.90.As early as 2019, Vietnam initiated an anti-dumping investigation on cold-rolled carbon steel coils from China and issued a final ruling on December 21, 2020, imposing anti-dumping duties of 4.43%–25.22% on the products involved. The detailed tax rates are shown in the table below.Table 1 - Vietnam's Anti-Dumping Duty Rates on Cold-Rolled Carbon Steel Coils from ChinaChina's Export of Cold-Rolled Carbon Steel Coils Surged Over 110% This Year, While Exports to Vietnam Dropped Nearly 70% YoY!According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from the initiation of the anti-dumping investigation in 2019 to 2024, China's export volume of the products involved experienced a trend of initial increase, subsequent decline, and then recovery. In 2019, China exported 585,400 mt of cold-rolled carbon steel coils, while by November this year, the export volume had reached 1.0438 million mt, representing a YoY increase of 111.16%.However, exports of the products involved to Vietnam showed a trend of initial increase followed by a decline, with no growth recorded this year. Specifically, in 2024, the top export destinations for the products involved were Taiwan, China, followed by South Korea, the UAE, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia, while Vietnam ranked only 31st among China's export destinations for the products involved this year.For the first 11 months of this year, China exported 4,900 mt of cold-rolled carbon steel coils to Vietnam, a YoY decrease of approximately 66.99% (the export volume for the same period in 2023 was 14,800 mt).This year, China's export data for the products involved to Vietnam is unlikely to surpass last year's!China's Export Share of Cold-Rolled Carbon Steel Coils to Vietnam Is Less Than 1%, Anti-Dumping Impact Is NegligibleTable 2 - Proportion of Products Involved Exported to Vietnam in China's Total Exports, 2019–November 2024Regarding the proportion of the products involved exported to Vietnam in China's total exports, the overall share fluctuated between 0% and 4%. After the anti-dumping ruling in 2020, the share dropped to 0.94% and later increased slightly. In 2025, coinciding with the final year of the initial anti-dumping ruling's validity, Vietnam officially initiated a sunset review on China's cold-rolled carbon steel coils on December 17, 2024. Based on the usual time required for anti-dumping reviews, the final ruling is expected to be issued one year later, aligning with the expiration of the original ruling.In summary, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total export volume of China's cold-rolled carbon steel coils to Vietnam in 2024 was only 4,900 mt, accounting for 0.47% of China's total exports of cold-rolled carbon steel coils. In terms of China's export rankings for cold-rolled carbon steel coils, Vietnam has dropped from 6th place at the start of the anti-dumping investigation to 31st place! Therefore, even if the anti-dumping duties are extended next year, there will be no significant impact on the total export volume of China's cold-rolled carbon steel coils.

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